Recently held seminars:

13 January 2025: The Geopolitical dance of innovation

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: How are nations using Chinese funding despite allegations of a debt trap?

Response: Many nations, such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan, turn to Chinese funding because other financing options are either unavailable or come with less favourable terms. For these countries, China's loans often represent a critical lifeline to fund infrastructure projects and stimulate economic growth. From China's perspective, these agreements are approached as business transactions with legally recognised governments, allowing Beijing to sidestep allegations of exploitative practices by framing its role as a neutral investor. Contrary to debt-trap allegations, there are examples where Chinese funding has positively impacted recipient countries. For instance, Ethiopia's collaboration with China on the Addis AbabaDjibouti Railway significantly improved trade connectivity and logistics efficiency in the region. While these projects can create economic opportunities, the extent of their benefits often depends on how effectively nations manage the borrowed funds and the associated debt. Thus, the narrative around Chinese funding is not entirely one-sided, as there are cases of both success and controversy.

Question: What does the change in investment for R&D represent?

Response: In 1978, the U.S. government accounted for over 50% of all R&D funding in the country, but by 1996, this figure had dropped to 33.6%. This shift highlights a broader trend: during periods of heightened geopolitical tension, such as the Cold War, government investment in R&D often reaches exceptional levels to maintain competitive advantages, especially in areas like defense and technology. Over time, as geopolitical pressures ease, these investments tend to stabilise, with private sector contributions taking on a larger role in innovation and development. This change reflects the adaptive nature of funding priorities in response to the global political landscape.

Question: How does the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represent geopolitics?

Response: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a prime example of how geopolitics extends beyond territorial disputes to encompass economic and technological influence. By connecting over 140 nations through infrastructure, trade routes, and digital networks, the BRI enables China to expand its strategic and economic reach. It embodies geopolitics by leveraging investments and partnerships to secure influence in key regions, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Europe, while fostering economic dependency among participating nations. The initiative also highlights geopolitical competition in the digital realm through its "Digital Silk Road" component, which involves the export of Chinese technologies and infrastructure. While it provides essential development opportunities for participating nations, critics argue that it enables China to exert significant political and economic leverage, underscoring the complex interplay of power, influence, and development in modern geopolitics.

25 September 2024: Man-Made Fibre Apparel: Elevating Bangladesh’s Apparel Sector Amid LDC Graduation

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Why is China reducing its share of cotton apparel in the global apparel market?

Response: China is now focusing on exporting MMF apparel, which constitutes more than 50 percent of its total apparel exports. This shift aligns with the growing global demand for MMF apparel, particularly in markets such as Europe, the USA, and the UK. Additionally, China is increasingly concentrating on producing and exporting electronic products.

Question: Producing MMF apparel has some environmental issues, such as carbon footprint and non-biodegradable properties. Then why should Bangladesh focus on producing MMF apparel?

Response: While both cotton and MMF apparel have environmental impacts, producing cotton requires a vast amount of water and land compared to MMF. As major export destinations are increasingly choosing MMF apparel, Bangladesh should not overly focus on environmental issues. Additionally, environmental protection measures are set by developed countries, and Bangladesh will comply with these regulations when they are established.

Question: Can Bangladesh compete with China regarding MMF apparel?

Response: China is much ahead of Bangladesh in terms of backward linkages, skilled labor force, and raw materials. To compete with China, Bangladesh needs to strengthen its backward linkages. Therefore, investment in workforce development and modern technology, expansion of research and development (R&D) initiatives, investment in man-made fiber production, and fostering innovation in recycling are much needed.

Question: How will the reduction of the import duty on MMF solve the dual concentration problem?

Response: By lowering these duties, the cost of MMF decreases, making it more competitive with natural fibers like cotton. This encourages textile manufacturers to diversify their production, reducing reliance on a single type of fiber. Additionally, lower import duties can stimulate local production of MMF, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers.

14 October 2024: Where Does Bangladesh Stand in Terms of Achieving Gender Equality?

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Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Can you elaborate on the Gender Parity Index? How are the numbers interpreted?

Response: The Gender Parity Index (GPI) is a measure of equality between men and women in key areas like education, employment, and political participation. A GPI value of 1 indicates full parity, meaning men and women have equal access. Values below 1 show women are disadvantaged

Question: Why do you think women’s unpaid contributions are not included in GDP calculations?

Response: Women’s unpaid work represents a significant contribution to the economy and should ideally be recognised. However, some debates argue that directly including it in GDP calculations could inflate the data and make it incomparable to other countries unless adopted globally. Any such inclusion needs to be done in a coordinated manner, ensuring standardisation across nations for consistency and comparability.

Question: How can the barriers preventing women from reporting harassment be overcome?

Response: Addressing social stigma is crucial through awareness campaigns that challenge victim-blaming and promote gender sensitivity. Strengthening legal framework implementation, ensuring accessible and supportive reporting mechanisms, and building trust in enforcement systems can also empower women to come forward and seek justice without fear of judgment or reprisal. There are numerous laws, regulations, and policies already in place to protect women and address harassment. However, the lack of proper implementation remains a critical issue. Ensuring the effective enforcement of these existing frameworks should be the utmost priority to create a safer and more supportive environment for women.

25 September 2024: Towards a WTO-compatible Export Support Mechanism: Implications for Bangladesh

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Did the researchers find any examples of how already graduated LDCs support their exporters?

Response: Bangladesh holds a unique position among graduating LDCs, as no other graduated LDC has experienced export-led economic growth on the same scale. Consequently, the researchers could not identify any such examples, as almost all graduated LDCs are smaller economies with less emphasis on export.

Question: If Bangladesh were included in Annex VII (b) of LDCs, would it be possible for Bangladesh to be competitive with all kinds of products it exports?

Response: Even if Bangladesh were included in Annex VII (b), it would not be able to provide export supports for its major export items, as 28 Bangladeshi export items (in jute and RMG) have already reached the export competitiveness threshold. However, Bangladesh could provide support for other products that have the potential to be export competitive but have not achieved that status due to various reasons.

Question: In the examples of how other countries support exporters, there were instances that appeared to be WTO-compatible. How can some countries continue providing support even though it seems that such support is not WTO-compatible?

Response: While some export support measures may appear to violate the WTO’s ASCM, not all these measures are necessarily challenged at the WTO's DSB. There are several reasons for this. Countries often weigh various factors before deciding to pursue a case. They may choose not to challenge certain subsidies for diplomatic reasons or to maintain positive trade relations. A country is more likely to initiate a dispute only when subsidies cause substantial harm to its domestic industries or international trade interests. If the impact of a subsidy is minimal, the potential benefits of challenging it may not justify the effort. Moreover, WTO disputes can be costly and time-consuming. Smaller or developing countries may lack the financial resources or legal expertise to pursue a case, even if they have legitimate grounds to do so. In many instances, countries prefer to resolve trade disputes through bilateral negotiations rather than resorting to the formal DSB process.

Question: Can the researchers provide any insight into whether and how much success the recommended policies would bring for exporters? Which recommendations are expected to be the most successful for exporters?

Response: Estimating the extent of success the recommendations would bring was beyond the capacity of the current study.

Question: As supports like cash subsidies will need to be stopped after 2029, is the government currently reducing these supports?

Response: Yes, the government has been gradually reducing cash incentives over the past year to ensure compatibility with WTO regulations. However, another approach could be to make the most of the remaining time before 2029 by effectively utilising the policy space to strengthen the foundation of certain industries.

Comments and feedback:

• Given the context that there already exists an anti-export bias in Bangladesh due to high tariff rates protecting domestic import-competing industries, government support aimed at making these industries export-competitive may further worsen the existing anti-export bias.

• The simplification of the Duty Drawback Scheme, as mentioned in Bangladesh's National Tariff Policy (NTP), can be considered.

• Since there is still room to support exporters in WTO-incompatible ways until 2029, considering due restraint period, Bangladesh can use this time to strengthen the industrial base in key sectors to cushion the post-graduation shock from the loss of some export supports. For example, the country could shift export support from cotton-based apparel to man-made fibre (MMF)-based apparel, aligning with the changing preferences of RMG buyers. Similarly, support can be extended to the leather industry to make it environmentally sustainable, making effective use of the remaining period.
Export support for agricultural goods can be provided for a longer period even after graduation through the Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS) or by remaining on the list of Net Food-Importing Developing Countries (NFIDC). Therefore, it would not be wise to lift existing supports now. Instead, they should be continued until Bangladesh's AMS threshold crosses the de minimis level or it exits the NFIDC list.

• The presentation recommended introducing regional support programmes to incentivize the decentralisation of industrial investment in Bangladesh. However, there is already a provision in place that encourages investment in disadvantaged regions.

18 September 2024: Bangladesh's Pharmaceutical Industry: Preparing for LDC Graduation and Assessing the Impact on Exports Post-Graduation

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: During 1980s the pharmaceutical industry was protected through limiting the activities of MNCs. After LDC graduation, we can’t impose such measures and will have to open the market. What impact will it have on the industry if we allow competition?

Response: While increased from MNCs may impact local firms’ profitability, it will have a positive impact on consumer. Consumers will be able to purchase medicine at a low cost. Also, the efficacy of medicine may be improved by allowing MNCs in this industry.

Question: How the incorporating parallel importation may influence price of on-patent medicine?

Response: The parallel importation flexibility enables importers to procure medicines from markets where they are available at lower prices. By introducing this option, manufacturers are compelled to consider potential arbitrage opportunities when setting high prices for patented medicines.

Question: How the adoption of Bangladesh Patent Act 2023 prepares the industry for LDC graduation?

Response: Before the adoption of the Patent Acts in 2022 and 2023, the patent system was regulated by the 1911 Patent Act. This older legislation addressed novelty in a limited manner, allowing for practices such as ever-greening. Additionally, it did not comply with the TRIPS Agreement. As a TRIPS signatory, Bangladesh was required to implement a new patent regime, and the recently adopted Patent Acts have effectively addressed these shortcomings.

Question: How would the new patent act resolve the ever-greening issues?

Response: The new patent act defines novelty in a rigorous manner. A marginal improvement from previous patented drugs will be eligible for patented.

9 September 2024: Extending Social Protection Floor Coverage- An Assessment Based National Dialogue (ABND) Approach

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: In the dialogues, it is said programmes will be finalized ‘on priority basis’. What considerations will be given priority to regarding this?

Response: The cost of implementation and immediate return/outcome of the process are two of the factors that will be prioritized, which demands of the stakeholders and immediate need of the population in discussion will also be taken into consideration.

Question: What does extending the social protection floor or coverage look like in ABND?

Response: It can be horizontal extension, where people who were not under protection before are brought under protection, or it can be vertical extension, where the level of benefit for the people already receiving social protection is increased. The basic notion is to close down the gap between the nationally defined social protection floor and actual coverage scenario in practice.

Question: Most of the stakeholders of the national dialogues seem to be from the supply side of social protection, how will the demand side be represented?

Response: The civil society, consisting of human rights activists, academicians, and journalists will be included as stakeholders, who can represent the needs of the demand side.

Question: In the life-cycle approach of social protection coverage, how will minority groups be covered?

Response: Since life-cycle stages approach categorizes beneficiaries based on age groups, if properly implemented, minority groups will be automatically covered under this approach as they also belong to one age group or another. However, Bangladesh currently addresses the needs of minority groups under the needs of covariate shocks.

Question: How is the assessment of gaps in current social protection coverage actually made?

Response: Primarily through desk research with the help of the tool called ‘Assessment Matrix’. It helps to gather relevant information in an organized way that makes it easier to identify where the gaps in policy or implementation lie.

2 September 2024: Structural Transformation in Asia-Pacific LDCs in a Global Context: A Comparative Analysis

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Why is the services' share of GDP not incorporated as a measure of structural transformation?

Response: In most countries, the services sectors are not developed and less progressive. Moreover, productivity growth in services is relatively lower in LDCs compared to many other countries. Although services are significantly important globally, this trend is not necessarily a good thing. It is much easier to trade physical items which tend to have higher returns to scale.

Question: Why is employment share not selected as a measure of structural transformation?

Response: The paper uses four of the most widely adopted measures of structural transformation, one of which, based on existing literature, emphasises output share rather than employment share. Moreover, data on employment by sector are also not uniformly available for all countries. There is much lower consistency in the construction of employment data across a large set of countries, which might lead to comparability issues.

Question: How urbanisation is linked to structural transformation?

Response: Urbanisation dynamics worked as a vehicle for economic transformation. Moreover, the relationship between the level of urbanisation and per capita income is positive. Further, productive cities are considered an engine of economic growth where high-value-added crucial sectors have replaced low-value-added agricultural sectors. Such a transition can be linked to defining structural transformation.

Question: What is the reason for including the square of GDP per capita?

Response: The paper uses GDP per capita and its squared term to address potential non-linearity issues. The relationship between the dependent and independent variable might not always be linear (straight line), but rather it might be curve-shaped. Therefore, to control this issue the paper takes the square of GDP PC.

Question: Why is random effect estimation instead of fixed effect estimation conducted for empirical purposes?

Response: For empirical analysis and to focus on our objective, the model includes country dummy variables along with other variables in the model. Fixed effect model controls for all time-invariant characteristics of all entities. For each group, the dummy variable takes 0 or 1. In this case, fixed effect implies within transformation and that dummy gets omitted. Therefore, the estimation procedure employed panel random effect method.

Comments and feedback:

Instead of panel random effect estimation procedure, there are other econometric approaches such as difference in difference (DID), least square dummy variable (LSDG) along with year fixed and regional fixed effect might be useful to make the empirical analysis more robust. Analysis of descriptive statistics would be more appropriate to understand and make valid comparisons or differences among country groups. In addition to comparing AP LDCs with global and developing countries, the analysis should also include comparisons with other least-developed countries (LDCs).

21August 2024: Needs Assessment Study on the Necessity of More Off-dock/Dry Ports

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Here, you prioritise rail as the mode of transportation over waterways and roads. So, why aren't we improving the waterways and roads?

Response: The waterway between Dhaka and Chittagong is not conducive for adequate container-carrying vessels. For example, the channel can accommodate ships with a maximum draft of 4.5 meters, which is not efficient for carrying a sufficient number of containers. On highways, a lorry can carry a maximum of 3 TEUs and often faces traffic congestion. However, a rail can carry more than 18 TEUs at a time without encountering traffic jams.

Question: Despite having an Inland Container Depot (ICD) in Kamalapur, why are you suggesting the establishment of additional dry ports in Gazipur and Narayanganj?

Response: A significant portion of Ready-Made Garment (RMG) industries are located in Gazipur and Narayanganj, and RMG contributes a substantial share of exports. Establishing additional dry ports closer to Kamalapur could exacerbate traffic congestion in the area. Therefore, setting up dry ports in Gazipur and Narayanganj is more strategic and efficient.

Question: What are the major policy conflicts regarding the zoning laws?

Response: Currently, there are two off-dock policy documents in Bangladesh: one prepared by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and another by the Chittagong Port Authority. The NBR recommends that new off-docks be established within 20 kilometers of the Chittagong port, while the Chittagong Port Authority suggests that they should be located beyond 20 kilometers from the port. This difference in recommendations is a significant policy conflict.

Comments and feedback:

• It is highly recommended to prioritise rail as the primary mode of transportation for cargo handling. However, to address potential future scenarios where the railway could be damaged by disasters, it is advisable to develop an emergency alternative transport solution.
• It is recommended to integrate 5G technology into port management. Given that many off docks in Bangladesh are currently outdated, it is advisable to consider updating with proper modern equipments with details.

17 August 2024: Options and Strategic Entry Points to Address Investment Gaps through Alternative Financing for Social Protection in Bangladesh

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Why shouldn't we prioritize a direct tax financing approach over other sources for funding social protection?

Response: Bangladesh's low tax/GDP ratio, along with challenges in collecting taxes from all relevant sectors, makes it difficult to rely solely on direct tax financing. A major obstacle is that many individuals and businesses operate outside the formal economy, limiting the revenue generated from direct taxation. Moreover, direct taxes are particularly challenging to collect from the informal sector, which represents a large percentage (84%) of the economy. While enhancing the direct tax financing approach is crucial, broadening the tax base through more inclusive reforms and improving administrative efficiency are equally important to boost revenue. Additionally, a combination of indirect taxes and innovative tax mechanisms could complement direct taxes, providing a more diversified financing strategy for social protection.

Question: Fuel subsidies will be a burden on low-income individuals, so how rational is it to rely on such an approach?

Response: Indonesia reprioritizes their spending by reducing costly fuel subsidies and effectively managed political resistance through a compensatory scheme for low-income families. At the same time, it advanced social protection by supporting the development of a universal healthcare system and expanding pension coverage. However, in the context of Bangladesh, this may not be a feasible solution due to the potential economic burden on low-income individuals who heavily rely on fuel. Therefore, when considering alternative financing options, it is essential to carefully evaluate both the pros and cons to ensure the approach is viable and equitable for the country.

Question: What is a social impact bond, and how can this be used as an alternative financing method?

Response: A Social Impact Bond (SIB) is a results-based financing mechanism where social investors fund the government to deliver services, such as helping homeless individuals secure housing, and the government repays the investors with interest if the service achieves its intended outcomes. In South Africa, SIBs are used to fund various social programs in the Western Cape Province. In Bangladesh, where persistent unemployment is a challenge, adopting a SIB approach could be beneficial for initiatives like the "Improvement of Socio-Economic and Livelihood Development of Tribal/Minor Races People Through Integrated Livestock Project." This program aims to improve socio-economic conditions and create employment opportunities for minority communities. By implementing an outcome-based SIB model, the project could set specific targets, such as providing employment to a certain number of individuals from these communities. This approach could attract private investment while improving employment outcomes.

Question: How can consolidating the fragmented social protection programs help address the existing financing gap?

Response: Fragmented programs can lead to overlapping objectives, where multiple initiatives target the same beneficiaries or have similar objectives, causing inefficiencies. Additionally, a limited budget thinly spread over numerous small programs reduces the funding available for each one. By consolidating smaller or repetitive programs, resources can be freed up and reallocated to scale up major social protection initiatives. While this may not increase the overall social protection budget, it allows for more efficient use of existing funds, increases the budget for key programs, and reduces wasteful expenditure, ultimately enhancing the overall impact of social protection efforts.

14 August 2024: Vehicle and Cargo Tracking System under Free Trade Regime

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Are there any requirements to join the Transport Internationaux Routiers (TIR) Convention?

Response: To join the TIR Convention, a country must first designate a national guaranteeing association, which assumes financial responsibility for unpaid customs duties or taxes on transported goods. This association must be financially stable and meet the TIR Convention's requirements. The country must then incorporate the TIR Convention's provisions into its national laws to ensure alignment with international standards. Once these steps are completed, the International Road Transport Union (IRU) conducts a verification process to assess the country’s compliance with the TIR Convention's technical and operational requirements. Finally, the country formalises its membership through a process involving the United Nations Secretary-General, enabling it to participate in the benefits of the streamlined international transport system.

Question: "Why do the findings from the field survey show that 60 per cent of stakeholders agree that automation in customs procedures reduces the indicator under 'Others,' including corruption, administrative burden, and delays in the supply chain?

Response: This is a perception survey, so we don't fully understand how respondents think, and including various variables in one indicator can cause the percentage to decrease.

Question: Why do cargo handlers refuse to install tracking devices, citing privacy concerns for drivers?

Response: Cargo handlers claim that drivers cannot adopt the new technology and are reluctant to use it due to privacy concerns. However, these privacy concerns seem to be a weak excuse. This excuse could make implementing tracking services somewhat difficult. To address this issue, it is suggested that persuading business owners and cargo handlers to embrace cargo tracking technology through mindset alignment is necessary.

Comments and feedback:

Offering operational benefits would be beneficial in driving the adoption of cargo tracking systems among traders. Traders who utilise the tracking system can receive priority in port queues and customs clearance processes. Therefore, by providing these benefits, their shipments will likely be processed faster, reducing waiting times and potentially streamlining the overall logistics.

13 August 2024: SciSpace: Research Made Simpler

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PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Whenever I tell it to summarize an article for me, it isn’t able to give me an appropriate response. Why is that?

Response: Typing in a vague instruction such as these often confuses an ai and it requires a more specific prompt based on the paper to give you a more accurate response but till now paper summarization is best preferred to be done manually and then it can be compared to the ai’s summary for accuracy.

Question: Can we provide Prezi with a topic and will it be able to generate a presentation for us with data?

Response: No in that case you will be able to get a generalized presentation template but you will have to provide data on your own so that the AI can create it as you would prefer.

Question: Where does the SciSpace generated data come from?

Response: It is produced from the database which is integrated with a machine learning model which scrapes data from the web based on your prompts and searches and produces results accordingly.

12 August 2024: Developing a Roadmap for Childcare in Bangladesh

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PPT slides here.

Comments and feedback:

• The Child Daycare Centre Act 2021 focuses on the registration and licensing of the dyacare centres in Bangladesh. However, the absence of a licensing authority hinders its implementation. Therefore, to implement the Act, the formation of the authority should be expedited.

• Although the data used for the study may not be nationally representative, this does not undermine its value. The focus should be on analysing the demand for childcare based on the cohort of respondents surveyed, without necessarily needing a nationally representative dataset.

• A significant issue raised during KIIs with caregiving training providers is the lack of age-specific training available. There is a strong need to develop an age-specific curriculum to address the different care needs of various age groups.

• While the presentation was comprehensive, a deeper understanding of the nuances of some issues can be gained through case studies, included in the report. Additionally, it is crucial that the Child Day Care Centre Act is reviewed in consultation with relevant stakeholders to make it more practical and applicable.

8 August 2024: Understanding Urban Poverty and Identifying Urban Poor and the Beneficiaries for Social Protection Schemes

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Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Whom does the vulnerability incidence include?

Response: The vulnerability incidence has taken extreme poor, moderate poor and non-poor who are vulnerable to shocks into account, meaning people living below the vulnerability line, which is 1.25 times the upper poverty line.

Question: Why is urban poverty a concern when the urban poverty incidence has declined over the periods?

Response: Though urban poverty as well as the overall poverty has declined in relative terms (poverty incidence), urban poverty has increase in absolute terms, that is number of urban poor people has increased, while the national poverty in absolute terms has decreased. Thus, urban poverty is a growing concern associated with rapid urbanisation.

Question: What is the significance of estimating district wise SSNP coverage?

Response: To observe the top and bottom districts covering households with at least one scheme, see the district wise disparity.

Comments and feedback:

The definition of the core income groups should be well-defined. The share of SSPs in terms of beneficiary coverage should be calculated without considering retirement benefits and freedom fighter allowance, infrastructure programmes (e.g., Ashrayan project) as social protection. It would be interesting to run simulation analysis (SSNP’s impact on poverty) if inclusion error is zero. Moreover, major five programmes’ distribution over districts can be estimated.