Recently held seminars:

Dhaka

PPT slides here.

About the presentation:

This presentation discusses the process and progress of carrying out an Assessment Based National Dialogue exercise in Bangladesh, which is used to extend social protection floor coverage in a country. The process involves assessing the current extent and coverage of social protection in Bangladesh to identify policy/implementation gaps and developing programme scenarios to close that gap using a tool called the ‘Assessment Matrix’ along with undertaking a costing exercise using another tool called Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP) Model to estimate implementation costs for some of the programme scenarios. Besides these exercises, the process also includes multiple national dialogues in which different stakeholders will participate to voice their needs and thoughts regarding the coverage extension decisions. An ABND exercise is currently being carried out for the working age population of Bangladesh, in which the first major component of the ABND process, the Assessment Matrix preparation has been completed already.

PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: In the dialogues, it is said programmes will be finalized ‘on priority basis’. What considerations will be given priority to regarding this?

Response: The cost of implementation and immediate return/outcome of the process are two of the factors that will be prioritized, which demands of the stakeholders and immediate need of the population in discussion will also be taken into consideration.

Question: What does extending the social protection floor or coverage look like in ABND?

Response: It can be horizontal extension, where people who were not under protection before are brought under protection, or it can be vertical extension, where the level of benefit for the people already receiving social protection is increased. The basic notion is to close down the gap between the nationally defined social protection floor and actual coverage scenario in practice.

Question: Most of the stakeholders of the national dialogues seem to be from the supply side of social protection, how will the demand side be represented?

Response: The civil society, consisting of human rights activists, academicians, and journalists will be included as stakeholders, who can represent the needs of the demand side.

Question: In the life-cycle approach of social protection coverage, how will minority groups be covered?

Response: Since life-cycle stages approach categorizes beneficiaries based on age groups, if properly implemented, minority groups will be automatically covered under this approach as they also belong to one age group or another. However, Bangladesh currently addresses the needs of minority groups under the needs of covariate shocks.

Question: How is the assessment of gaps in current social protection coverage actually made?

Response: Primarily through desk research with the help of the tool called ‘Assessment Matrix’. It helps to gather relevant information in an organized way that makes it easier to identify where the gaps in policy or implementation lie.

About the presentation:

This presentation offers a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of structural transformation in Asia-Pacific Least Developed Countries (AP LDCs) within both a global and developing countries context. This exercise sheds light on the critical challenge of conceptualising structural transformation and measuring it to conclude about the progress being made in AP LDCs. The presentation examines four measures of structural transformation, sectoral share (agriculture and manufacturing) of GDP, urbanisation and Economic Complexity Index (ECI) on country fundamentals and institutional factors. By conducting a comparative analysis which involved panel random effect estimation method, the study outlines that structural transformation in Asia-Pacific LDCs is not always in line with what has been experienced by today’s advanced and developing nations.

PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Why is the services' share of GDP not incorporated as a measure of structural transformation?

Response: In most countries, the services sectors are not developed and less progressive. Moreover, productivity growth in services is relatively lower in LDCs compared to many other countries. Although services are significantly important globally, this trend is not necessarily a good thing. It is much easier to trade physical items which tend to have higher returns to scale.

Question: Why is employment share not selected as a measure of structural transformation?

Response: The paper uses four of the most widely adopted measures of structural transformation, one of which, based on existing literature, emphasises output share rather than employment share. Moreover, data on employment by sector are also not uniformly available for all countries. There is much lower consistency in the construction of employment data across a large set of countries, which might lead to comparability issues.

Question: How urbanisation is linked to structural transformation?

Response: Urbanisation dynamics worked as a vehicle for economic transformation. Moreover, the relationship between the level of urbanisation and per capita income is positive. Further, productive cities are considered an engine of economic growth where high-value-added crucial sectors have replaced low-value-added agricultural sectors. Such a transition can be linked to defining structural transformation.

Question: What is the reason for including the square of GDP per capita?

Response: The paper uses GDP per capita and its squared term to address potential non-linearity issues. The relationship between the dependent and independent variable might not always be linear (straight line), but rather it might be curve-shaped. Therefore, to control this issue the paper takes the square of GDP PC.

Question: Why is random effect estimation instead of fixed effect estimation conducted for empirical purposes?

Response: For empirical analysis and to focus on our objective, the model includes country dummy variables along with other variables in the model. Fixed effect model controls for all time-invariant characteristics of all entities. For each group, the dummy variable takes 0 or 1. In this case, fixed effect implies within transformation and that dummy gets omitted. Therefore, the estimation procedure employed panel random effect method.

Comments and feedback:

Instead of panel random effect estimation procedure, there are other econometric approaches such as difference in difference (DID), least square dummy variable (LSDG) along with year fixed and regional fixed effect might be useful to make the empirical analysis more robust. Analysis of descriptive statistics would be more appropriate to understand and make valid comparisons or differences among country groups. In addition to comparing AP LDCs with global and developing countries, the analysis should also include comparisons with other least-developed countries (LDCs).

About the presentation:

Chittagong Port is a crucial hub for containerised cargo in Bangladesh, with around 70 percent of the cargo either originating from or destined for Dhaka. The majority of these containers, approximately 67 percent are transported through road networks whereas rail transport, which is efficient for bulk movement, accounts for only 3% of the total container throughput. There are currently 18 dry port/off-dock terminals near Chittagong Port, and all are operated by private investors. The Dhaka Inland Container Depot (ICD) plays a significant role in rail cargo transport, but it is facing capacity constraints due to the urban development and the resulting congestion. This situation highlights the urgent need for additional off-dock and dry port facilities to relieve pressure on existing infrastructure and improve overall efficiency. This presentation evaluates the need for additional off-docks and dry ports in Bangladesh, addressing current logistical challenges and considering future trade growth. It begins with highlighting the existing dry port facilities and their limitations. Additionally, it provides an overview of dry port design and operation and suggests potential locations for dry ports. Finally, it examines current policies and regulatory challenges, with offering some recommendations for improvement.

PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Here, you prioritise rail as the mode of transportation over waterways and roads. So, why aren't we improving the waterways and roads?

Response: The waterway between Dhaka and Chittagong is not conducive for adequate container-carrying vessels. For example, the channel can accommodate ships with a maximum draft of 4.5 meters, which is not efficient for carrying a sufficient number of containers. On highways, a lorry can carry a maximum of 3 TEUs and often faces traffic congestion. However, a rail can carry more than 18 TEUs at a time without encountering traffic jams.

Question: Despite having an Inland Container Depot (ICD) in Kamalapur, why are you suggesting the establishment of additional dry ports in Gazipur and Narayanganj?

Response: A significant portion of Ready-Made Garment (RMG) industries are located in Gazipur and Narayanganj, and RMG contributes a substantial share of exports. Establishing additional dry ports closer to Kamalapur could exacerbate traffic congestion in the area. Therefore, setting up dry ports in Gazipur and Narayanganj is more strategic and efficient.

Question: What are the major policy conflicts regarding the zoning laws?

Response: Currently, there are two off-dock policy documents in Bangladesh: one prepared by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and another by the Chittagong Port Authority. The NBR recommends that new off-docks be established within 20 kilometers of the Chittagong port, while the Chittagong Port Authority suggests that they should be located beyond 20 kilometers from the port. This difference in recommendations is a significant policy conflict.

Comments and feedback:

• It is highly recommended to prioritise rail as the primary mode of transportation for cargo handling. However, to address potential future scenarios where the railway could be damaged by disasters, it is advisable to develop an emergency alternative transport solution.
• It is recommended to integrate 5G technology into port management. Given that many off docks in Bangladesh are currently outdated, it is advisable to consider updating with proper modern equipments with details.

About the presentation:

Bangladesh's social protection sector aims to provide essential support to vulnerable and poor individuals through various initiatives. Currently, 140 programs are operating under different ministries. However, the current budget to finance the large number of programs consists only 2.5 percent of GDP and 17 percent of the national budget. The financing strategy heavily relies on tax revenues, and due to the low tax/GDP ratio, budget constraints have become an inevitable phenomenon. This limits the potential for expanding the sector or supporting all eligible individuals adequately. As a result, exclusion errors occur, per-person program benefits are inadequate, and the benefit amounts do not account for inflation. To ensure that all citizens, especially those in need, are accommodated under basic social protection support regardless of their circumstances, it is crucial to explore alternative financing options. For example, taxes from different sources like tourism, mining, corporate tax or innovative approaches like Monotax, Sin tax, and Pigouvian tax can be considered to increase the tax base. Lessons from international practices also suggest some innovative approaches, such as reallocation of resources, fuel subsidy, national lottery, social impact bond, environment bond, zakat, etc. All the approaches are subject to a feasibility test in the context of Bangladesh; further research is needed for this. In addition to identifying new funding sources, strengthening the existing tax-based financing model should also be a priority, as most social protection programs rely on it.

PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: : Why shouldn't we prioritize a direct tax financing approach over other sources for funding social protection?

Response: Bangladesh's low tax/GDP ratio, along with challenges in collecting taxes from all relevant sectors, makes it difficult to rely solely on direct tax financing. A major obstacle is that many individuals and businesses operate outside the formal economy, limiting the revenue generated from direct taxation. Moreover, direct taxes are particularly challenging to collect from the informal sector, which represents a large percentage (84%) of the economy. While enhancing the direct tax financing approach is crucial, broadening the tax base through more inclusive reforms and improving administrative efficiency are equally important to boost revenue. Additionally, a combination of indirect taxes and innovative tax mechanisms could complement direct taxes, providing a more diversified financing strategy for social protection.

Question: Fuel subsidies will be a burden on low-income individuals, so how rational is it to rely on such an approach?

Response: Indonesia reprioritizes their spending by reducing costly fuel subsidies and effectively managed political resistance through a compensatory scheme for low-income families. At the same time, it advanced social protection by supporting the development of a universal healthcare system and expanding pension coverage. However, in the context of Bangladesh, this may not be a feasible solution due to the potential economic burden on low-income individuals who heavily rely on fuel. Therefore, when considering alternative financing options, it is essential to carefully evaluate both the pros and cons to ensure the approach is viable and equitable for the country.

Question: What is a social impact bond, as an alternative financing how this can be used?

Response: A Social Impact Bond (SIB) is a results-based financing mechanism where social investors fund the government to deliver services, such as helping homeless individuals secure housing, and the government repays the investors with interest if the service achieves its intended outcomes. In South Africa, SIBs are used to fund various social programs in the Western Cape Province. In Bangladesh, where persistent unemployment is a challenge, adopting a SIB approach could be beneficial for initiatives like the "Improvement of Socio-Economic and Livelihood Development of Tribal/Minor Races People Through Integrated Livestock Project." This program aims to improve socio-economic conditions and create employment opportunities for minority communities. By implementing an outcome-based SIB model, the project could set specific targets, such as providing employment to a certain number of individuals from these communities. This approach could attract private investment while improving employment outcomes.

Question: How can consolidating the fragmented social protection programs help address the existent financing gap?

Response: Fragmented programs can lead to overlapping objectives, where multiple initiatives target the same beneficiaries or have similar objectives, causing inefficiencies. Additionally, a limited budget thinly spread over numerous small programs reduces the funding available for each one. By consolidating smaller or repetitive programs, resources can be freed up and reallocated to scale up major social protection initiatives. While this may not increase the overall social protection budget, it allows for more efficient use of existing funds, increases the budget for key programs, and reduces wasteful expenditure, ultimately enhancing the overall impact of social protection efforts.

About the presentation:

Aligned with the Government of Bangladesh’s strategic vision to advance its logistics sector, this presentation focuses on enhancing vehicle and cargo tracking systems under the free trade regime, as executed by the Bangladesh Regional Connectivity Project (BRCP) 1 of the Ministry of Commerce (MoC). It highlights the current state of tracking systems in Bangladesh, including the National Board of Revenue’s (NBR) Electronic Seal and Lock Rules 2024, and identifies gaps and challenges in existing guidelines and practices. Additionally, it offers comprehensive insights and actionable recommendations for improving trade efficiency and performance in the country through the implementation of vehicle and cargo tracking systems.

PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Are there any requirements to join the Transport Internationaux Routiers (TIR) Convention?

Response: To join the TIR Convention, a country must first designate a national guaranteeing association, which assumes financial responsibility for unpaid customs duties or taxes on transported goods. This association must be financially stable and meet the TIR Convention's requirements. The country must then incorporate the TIR Convention's provisions into its national laws to ensure alignment with international standards. Once these steps are completed, the International Road Transport Union (IRU) conducts a verification process to assess the country’s compliance with the TIR Convention's technical and operational requirements. Finally, the country formalises its membership through a process involving the United Nations Secretary-General, enabling it to participate in the benefits of the streamlined international transport system.

Question: "Why do the findings from the field survey show that 60 per cent of stakeholders agree that automation in customs procedures reduces the indicator under 'Others,' including corruption, administrative burden, and delays in the supply chain?

Response: This is a perception survey, so we don't fully understand how respondents think, and including various variables in one indicator can cause the percentage to decrease.

Question: Why do cargo handlers refuse to install tracking devices, citing privacy concerns for drivers?

Response: Cargo handlers claim that drivers cannot adopt the new technology and are reluctant to use it due to privacy concerns. However, these privacy concerns seem to be a weak excuse. This excuse could make implementing tracking services somewhat difficult. To address this issue, it is suggested that persuading business owners and cargo handlers to embrace cargo tracking technology through mindset alignment is necessary.

Comments and feedback:

Offering operational benefits would be beneficial in driving the adoption of cargo tracking systems among traders. Traders who utilise the tracking system can receive priority in port queues and customs clearance processes. Therefore, by providing these benefits, their shipments will likely be processed faster, reducing waiting times and potentially streamlining the overall logistics.

About the presentation:

This presentation was solely carried out with the intention to increase the productivity of the RAPID team where I demonstrated the functionalities of an ai tool called SciSpace which aids people in research. It has features such as a paraphraser, ai detector, topic based paper search, etc among other notable features which can be used to reduce the time taken to carry out research and literature review on projects. Also I demonstrated the use of Prezi which is an AI based presentation creator which creates graphic and animated presentations based on detailed prompts.

PPT slides here.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Whenever I tell it to summarize an article for me, it isn’t able to give me an appropriate response. Why is that?

Response: Typing in a vague instruction such as these often confuses an ai and it requires a more specific prompt based on the paper to give you a more accurate response but till now paper summarization is best preferred to be done manually and then it can be compared to the ai’s summary for accuracy.

Question: Can we provide Prezi with a topic and will it be able to generate a presentation for us with data?

Response: No in that case you will be able to get a generalized presentation template but you will have to provide data on your own so that the AI can create it as you would prefer.

Question: Where does the SciSpace generated data come from?

Response: It is produced from the database which is integrated with a machine learning model which scrapes data from the web based on your prompts and searches and produces results accordingly.

PPT slides here.

About the presentation:

The presentation focused on the importance of childcare in Bangladesh, relating to the rise in the demand for childcare services with an increasing female labour force participation (FLFP) and changes towards nuclear family systems. The presentation does an in-depth study of the challenges and opportunities in the childcare sector, which includes shortcomings regarding present policies on childcare-mostly regarding the Child Daycare Centre Act 2021. Key concerns are around mandatory registration and periodic inspections of child care centres, absence of discussions on minimum standards of services, and inter-ministerial coordination. This presentation pointed to the need for the development of the childcare economy, along with presenting simulations on expanding coverage, job creation at millions, and simultaneous reduction of gender gaps in employment.
The presentation highlighted RAPID's mixed-method approach to research with KIIs, FGDs, and field visits for reviewing the baseline of childcare demand, public investments in the sector, and current childcare models including public, private, NGO-run, home, and community -based ones.

Comments and feedback:

• The Child Daycare Centre Act 2021 focuses on the registration and licensing of the dyacare centres in Bangladesh. However, the absence of a licensing authority hinders its implementation. Therefore, to implement the Act, the formation of the authority should be expedited.

• Although the data used for the study may not be nationally representative, this does not undermine its value. The focus should be on analysing the demand for childcare based on the cohort of respondents surveyed, without necessarily needing a nationally representative dataset.

• A significant issue raised during KIIs with caregiving training providers is the lack of age-specific training available. There is a strong need to develop an age-specific curriculum to address the different care needs of various age groups.

• While the presentation was comprehensive, a deeper understanding of the nuances of some issues can be gained through case studies, included in the report. Additionally, it is crucial that the Child Day Care Centre Act is reviewed in consultation with relevant stakeholders to make it more practical and applicable.

About the presentation:

The presentation shares findings on multiple dimensions of poverty, focusing on urban poverty, as Bangladesh faces a growing challenge of urban poverty amidst rapid urbanisation. Urban poverty has been characterised by issues such as unemployment, high living costs, and limited social safety nets. Factors contributing to urban poverty include income variability, living standards, and inadequate social protection schemes. This presentation examined targeting errors in major social protection programmes both in urban and rural areas, and emphasised on the coverage gaps in schemes in terms of vulnerability.
Quantitative methods including descriptive analysis, econometric modeling, and simulation analysis have been applied to estimate the results. The study outlines that addressing urban poverty requires tailored interventions and policies to ensure the economic and social well-being of urban people with regard to feasible schemes to lift them out of poverty and vulnerability.

Highlights from the Q&A session:

Question: Whom does the vulnerability incidence include?

Response: The vulnerability incidence has taken extreme poor, moderate poor and non-poor who are vulnerable to shocks into account, meaning people living below the vulnerability line, which is 1.25 times the upper poverty line.

Question: Why is urban poverty a concern when the urban poverty incidence has declined over the periods?

Response: Though urban poverty as well as the overall poverty has declined in relative terms (poverty incidence), urban poverty has increase in absolute terms, that is number of urban poor people has increased, while the national poverty in absolute terms has decreased. Thus, urban poverty is a growing concern associated with rapid urbanisation.

Question: What is the significance of estimating district wise SSNP coverage?

Response: To observe the top and bottom districts covering households with at least one scheme, see the district wise disparity.

Comments and feedback:

The definition of the core income groups should be well-defined. The share of SSPs in terms of beneficiary coverage should be calculated without considering retirement benefits and freedom fighter allowance, infrastructure programmes (e.g., Ashrayan project) as social protection. It would be interesting to run simulation analysis (SSNP’s impact on poverty) if inclusion error is zero. Moreover, major five programmes’ distribution over districts can be estimated.